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The composite index fell by 0.6% in December, matching the drop in November after three months of accelerating declines. The losses remained concentrated in the stock market and housing. Overall, the four components that rose were evenly balanced with the four that decreased, while two were unchanged.
The stock market and the housing index posted losses of 7.9% and 4.5%, respectively, little changed from their drops the month before. However, these declines were largely driven by steep losses in the autumn.
Consumer spending remained resilient, with increases for both furniture and appliances and other durable goods. However, preliminary data point to sharply lower auto sales in December, which is the largest part of spending on other durable goods.
The manufacturing indicators remained mixed. New orders were buoyed by continued strength for aerospace. However, only steep cuts to output kept the ratio of shipments to stocks from falling. These cuts to production were reflected in a shorter workweek and mounting layoffs at factories. The outlook for export demand remained bleak, as the US leading indicator fell 0.6%, the largest of 16 straight declines.
A more detailed analysis of the components is available online.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the February 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 1 (11-010-XWE, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| July 2008 | August 2008 | September 2008 | October 2008 | November 2008 | December 2008 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 229.5 | 230.0 | 229.5 | 228.4 | 227.0 | 225.7 | -0.6 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 137.1 | 134.7 | 134.2 | 130.3 | 123.3 | 117.7 | -4.5 |
| Business and personal services employment (thousands) | 2,937 | 2,949 | 2,953 | 2,953 | 2,948 | 2,947 | 0.0 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 14,012 | 14,097 | 13,660 | 12,669 | 11,630 | 10,709 | -7.9 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 172,383 | 172,897 | 174,030 | 176,086 | 178,642 | 181,140 | 1.4 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 124.1 | 123.9 | 123.5 | 123.1 | 122.5 | 121.8 | -0.6 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.7 | 37.6 | 37.4 | -0.5 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 27,667 | 28,475 | 28,024 | 27,691 | 27,857 | 28,837 | 3.5 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 0.005 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,872 | 2,882 | 2,911 | 2,938 | 2,955 | 2,966 | 0.4 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,747 | 9,711 | 9,702 | 9,651 | 9,681 | 9,729 | 0.5 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 229.6 | 230.0 | 227.5 | 224.9 | 222.9 | 223.1 | 0.1 |
