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The February composite leading index fell 1.1% after a 0.9% decrease in January, with 9 of the 10 components declining. The housing and stock markets continued to post the largest declines, while losses in manufacturing steepened as the auto industry began to implement extensive shutdowns at the turn of the year.
The three manufacturing indicators declined in unison. New orders fell 4.8%, with the weakness in autos intensifying and spreading to other industries like iron and steel. Inventories fell for a seventh straight month, but not as fast as sales, reducing the ratio of shipments to stocks.
The auto sector also bore the brunt of declining household spending. Durable goods sales fell 1.4%, largely due to a sharp drop in auto sales late in 2008. The housing index declined 8.0%, the most of any component, as an upturn in home sales was outweighed by fewer housing starts in February.
The money supply was the one component to expand. The stimulus from monetary policy also was a major factor behind the slower rate of decline in the leading index for the United States.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the April 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 4 (11-010-XPB, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
September 2008 | October 2008 | November 2008 | December 2008 | January 2009 | February 2009 | Last month of data available | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% change | |||||||
Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 229.5 | 228.4 | 227.0 | 225.5 | 223.5 | 221.0 | -1.1 |
Housing index (1992=100)1 | 133.8 | 130.2 | 123.1 | 117.6 | 109.4 | 100.6 | -8.0 |
Business and personal services employment (thousands) | 2,953 | 2,953 | 2,948 | 2,945 | 2,933 | 2,925 | -0.3 |
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 13,660 | 12,669 | 11,630 | 10,709 | 9,694 | 8,968 | -7.5 |
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 174,030 | 176,122 | 178,714 | 181,817 | 185,183 | 188,574 | 1.8 |
US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 123.6 | 123.2 | 122.5 | 121.7 | 121.2 | 120.9 | -0.2 |
Manufacturing | |||||||
Average workweek (hours) | 37.8 | 37.7 | 37.6 | 37.5 | 37.4 | 37.3 | -0.3 |
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 28,023 | 27,681 | 27,824 | 28,780 | 27,733 | 26,396 | -4.8 |
Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.69 | -0.045 |
Retail trade | |||||||
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,910 | 2,936 | 2,950 | 2,950 | 2,956 | 2,943 | -0.4 |
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,702 | 9,654 | 9,666 | 9,690 | 9,695 | 9,560 | -1.4 |
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 227.4 | 225.1 | 222.9 | 222.3 | 219.7 | 215.2 | -2.0 |