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Leading indicators

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May 2010 (Previous release)

The composite leading index rose by 0.9% in May, about equal to its average increase over the past year. However, the upturn in the index a year ago was led by housing and the stock market. These components have stopped contributing to growth, replaced instead by the manufacturing components. The US leading indicator has been a consistent source of growth over the past year.

The housing index fell 1.2%, its first decline since April 2009. Existing home sales continued to retreat slowly from their record high reached over the winter, while the year-long rally in housing starts stalled. Despite the slowdown in housing, furniture and appliance sales continued to strengthen. Demand for other durable goods remained soft, notably for autos.

The Toronto stock market stopped trending up after 13 straight increases.

All three manufacturing indicators rose in unison, and manufacturing consistently led the growth of total gross domestic product over the past five months. New orders led the way, up 4.0% for a fourth consecutive increase. The ratio of shipments to inventories strengthened for the 10th month in a row. The average workweek posted its first increase since September 2009.

The US leading indicator advanced 0.7%, continuing a string of 12 straight gains. Growth was led by manufacturing demand and a continued positive interest rate spread.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the July 2010 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 23, no. 7 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Table 1

Leading indicators
  December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 Last month of data available
              % change
Composite leading indicator (1992=100) 228.5 230.1 232.5 235.2 237.2 239.3 0.9
Housing index (1992=100)1 134.0 135.8 138.1 138.1 139.2 137.5 -1.2
Business and personal services employment ('000) 2,907 2,918 2,932 2,950 2,960 2,954 -0.2
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 11,273 11,319 11,366 11,591 11,744 11,747 0.0
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 207,903 209,709 211,503 213,033 214,323 215,318 0.5
US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 125.9 127.0 128.1 129.1 130.2 131.1 0.7
Manufacturing              
Average workweek (hours) 36.9 36.7 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.6 0.3
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 19,791 19,522 20,705 21,289 21,333 22,183 4.0
Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 1.66 1.70 1.73 1.77 1.81 1.85 0.045
Retail trade              
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 2,845 2,847 2,879 2,916 2,949 2,989 1.4
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 9,911 10,008 10,082 10,081 10,023 9,984 -0.4
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator 233.8 233.2 237.4 239.2 242.5 244.3 0.7
Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service).
Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items.
The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding.
The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month.
Difference from previous month.