Leading indicators

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The composite leading index increased 0.7% in January, following an identical gain in the previous month. This was the seventh consecutive increase in the index. The increase was concentrated in manufacturing, housing and services employment, and was offset by declines in durable goods sales and equity prices.

Out of the three manufacturing components, two increased. The ratio of shipments to inventories rose for the third straight month as sales strengthened and inventories were depleted, while the average workweek lengthened for the fourth month in a row. However, new orders for durable goods edged down after two monthly gains. Housing, money supply, and services employment components also increased. This was the 10th monthly increase in services employment.

Furniture and appliance sales fell; their fifth straight decline. Spending on other durable goods also declined after posting gains since May. The US leading indicator decreased for a second month in a row, while the equity prices were down for the eighth consecutive month.

Available without charge in CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the March 2012 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 25, no. 3 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Diana Wyman (613-951-4886; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.