Canadian Economic News, March 2021 edition

This module provides a concise summary of selected Canadian economic events, as well as international and financial market developments by calendar month. It is intended to provide contextual information only to support users of the economic data published by Statistics Canada. In identifying major events or developments, Statistics Canada is not suggesting that these have a material impact on the published economic data in a particular reference month.

All information presented here is obtained from publicly available news and information sources, and does not reflect any protected information provided to Statistics Canada by survey respondents.

COVID-19 timeline

  • The Government of British Columbia announced on March 2nd it had formally extended the provincial state of emergency until March 16th. On March 16th, the Government extended the state of emergency until March 30th. On March 30th, the Government extended the provincial state of emergency until April 13th.
  • The Government of the Northwest Territories announced on March 2nd it had extended the territory-wide Public Health Emergency until March 16th. On March 16th, the Public Health Emergency was extended until March 30th. On March 11th, the Government of the Northwest Territories announced it had extended the State of Emergency in the City of Yellowknife until March 25th. The Government extended the State of Emergency in the City of Yellowknife on March 25th until April 8th.
  • The Government of Manitoba announced on March 3rd it was extending the provincewide state of emergency for a period of 30 days.
  • The Government of Yukon announced on March 3rd it was extending the state of emergency under the Civil Emergency Measures Act.
  • The Government of Nova Scotia announced on March 5th it was renewing the state of emergency, effective March 7th, until March 21st. The Government renewed the state of emergency on March 19th until April 4th.
  • The Government of Saskatchewan announced on March 3rd it had renewed the state of emergency. The Government then subsequently renewed the state of emergency on March 17th.
  • The Government of Nunavut announced on March 18th it had extended the territory's public health emergency until April 1st.
  • The Government of Canada announced on March 18th that discretionary (non-essential) travel restrictions between the United States and Canada had been extended to April 21st.

Selected COVID-19 responses

  • On March 1st, the Government of Alberta announced that, effective immediately, unsupervised low intensity individual and group exercises were allowed by appointment only for indoor fitness and that libraries could open but must limit capacity to 15%. On March 8th, the Government announced that:
    • banquet halls, community halls, conference centres, and hotels could open for all activities permitted under Step 1 and Step 2;
    • all retail services and shopping malls must limit customer capacity to 25%, an increase from 15%; and
    • individuals or groups could now rehearse and perform in preparation for filming or live streaming a performance although no in-person audiences are allowed.
  • On March 3rd, the Government of Prince Edward Island announced it would move out of the Modified Red Level phase and back to the Circuit Breaker, effective March 4th, and that:
    • organized gatherings are limited to 50 people for activities including concerts, worship services, weddings, funerals, and movie theatres;
    • supervised gyms and fitness facilities, museums, and libraries can operate at up to 50% capacity;
    • rehearsals and individual or team practices are permitted, but games, tournaments, and competitions are not permitted;
    • retail stores, markets and craft fairs can operate at 50% capacity;
    • in-room dining is permitted, in accordance with the gathering limit of 50 people, with a maximum table size of six and a 10:00 p.m. closing time;
    • childcare centres may continue to operate at full capacity;
    • full-time classroom learning Kindergarten to grade 12 can resume.
  • On March 12th, the Government announced it had eased public health restrictions and that, beginning March 13th, the following measures would be in place until mid-April:
    • each household can gather with up to 10 individuals indoors or outdoors;
    • concerts, worship services, and movie theatres are permitted to operate with a limit of 50 people;
    • weddings and funerals can have up to 50 people;
    • gyms/fitness facilities, museums and libraries may operate;
    • retail stores, markets and craft fairs may operate; and
    • in-person consumption of food and drink at restaurants and bars can have a maximum table size of 10 and must close by 12:00 a.m.
  • On March 3rd, the Government of Quebec announced the following easing of measures effective March 8th for the orange zone, including Capitale-Nationale, Chaudière-Appalaches, Estrie, Mauricie, and Centre-du-Québec:
    • the curfew will remain in effect but will be pushed back from 8 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.;
    • the reopening of training rooms and performance halls; and
    • the reopening of restaurants, with a maximum of two adults per table.
  • On March 12th, the Government announced an easing of measures for the red zone, effective March 26th, including Montreal, the Laurentians, Lanaudière, Montérégie, and Laval:
    • all indoor facilities, including fitness centers can reopen;
    • spas and indoor pools of hotels can reopen; and
    • places of worship can have up to 25 people, up from the current capacity of 10.
  • On March 4th, the Government of Nova Scotia announced the province was lifting or altering restrictions currently in place for Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) and its neighbouring communities, and that restrictions that came into effect on February 27th would end March 5th. In particular:
    • travel in and out of HRM and surrounding municipalities would be allowed; and
    • restaurants and bars will return to previous dine-in service requirements, with service stopped by 10 p.m. and close by 11 p.m.
  • On March 19th, the Government announced the New Brunswick border was opening and remaining restrictions in parts of HRM and surrounding communities would be lifted, effective March 20th. In particular:
    • the general gathering limit remains at 10 indoors and outdoors; however, household gatherings will be increased from a maximum of 10 to households plus up to 10 others;
    • restaurants and licensed establishments can stop service by 11 p.m. and close by midnight; and
    • fitness facilities continue to operate at 75% capacity.
  • As well, the Government said the following is also allowed provincewide:
    • events hosted by a recognized business or organization can have 150 outdoors or 50% capacity to a maximum of 100 indoors;
    • retail businesses and malls can operate at 75% capacity; and
    • sports practices, training and games, and arts and culture rehearsals and performances can have 60 people without physical distancing.
  • On March 5th, the Government of Ontario announced that, effective March 8th, it was transitioning Toronto, Peel, and North Bay Parry Sound District public health regions out of the shutdown and into the revised COVID-19 Response Framework: Keeping Ontario Safe and Open, with the Stay-at-Home order no longer in effect. On March 12th, the Government announced it was moving Lambton Public Health into Grey-Lockdown and that it had activated an "emergency brake" in the Public Health Sudbury and Districts region, moving it to the Grey-Lockdown level. On March 26th, the Government announced it was moving the City of Hamilton public health region to the Grey-Lockdown level. The Government also said it was making adjustments to public health and workplace safety measures in the Grey-Lockdown level of the Framework, and that effective March 29th it was permitting:
    • outdoor fitness classes, outdoor training for team and individual sports and outdoor personal training, to a maximum of 10 patrons; and
    • marinas and boating clubs to operate clubhouses or any restaurant, bar, and other food or drink establishment for outdoor dining.
  • The Government also said that effective April 12th, personal care service settings including but not limited to barber shops, hair and nail salons, and body art establishments, will be permitted to operate at 25% capacity.
  • On March 9th, the Province of Saskatchewan announced that individual households may create a 'bubble' up to a maximum of 10 individuals in a home at any one time, and that, starting March 19th, Re-Open Saskatchewan guidelines for worship services will permit up to 30% capacity. On March 23rd, the Government announced that due to increased COVID-19 transmission in Regina and area, the following amendments were being made to the public health order, effective immediately:
    • indoor public gatherings are prohibited in Regina and area; and
    • travel is not recommended in or out of the Regina area.
  • The Government also said that effective March 28th in Regina and area:
    • all restaurants and licensed establishments must close for in-person dining; and
    • event venues including banquet and community halls, conference facilities, arts venues, museums, libraries, live theatre, cinemas, arcades, bowling, and science centres, or any non-essential indoor locations that had limits of 30 individuals are not permitted to operate at this time.
  • On March 30th, the Government announced it was extending the provincial public health orders announced on March 9th and the Regina and area revisions announced on March 23rd until April 12.
  • On March 9th, the Government of Nunavut announced that based on current circumstances in Arviat, it was time to ease public health measures and that effective March 10th:
    • businesses and workplaces can re-open;
    • schools will be allowed to open at stage 3 of the Opening Plan for Nunavut Schools;
    • daycares can re-open with enhanced cleaning; and
    • outdoor gatherings will be allowed up to 25 people while indoor gatherings in homes will be restricted to 5 people, plus those living in the home.
  • The Government also said that travel in and out of Arviat will continue to be restricted.
  • On March 18th, the Premiers of the Atlantic Provinces announced they had agreed to reopen the Atlantic Bubble by April 19th, conditional upon COVID-19 case numbers remaining low in the region, containment of outbreaks, and ongoing advice from Atlantic Chief Medical Officers of Health.
  • The Government of Canada announced on March 22nd that the deadline for new Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA) applications was being extended from March 31st to June 30, 2021, and that this deadline extension applies to any new applications for CEBA loans of $60,000 or to new applications from businesses that have already received the $40,000 loan and intend to apply for the additional $20,000.
  • On March 23rd, the Government of Manitoba announced that the following changes to public health orders would go into effect on March 26th and will expire on April 15th:
    • increasing gathering limits at outdoor public places to 25 from 10 people; and
    • increasing gathering limits at weddings and funerals to 25 from 10 people.
  • On March 24th, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced that, effective March 27th, the province will move to Alert Level 2 and that:
    • each household can have a maximum of 20 close consistent contacts;
    • the maximum number of people allowed at formal gatherings, including weddings, funerals, and faith-based services, is increasing to 50;
    • gyms, fitness facilities, swimming pools, dance studios, yoga studios, tennis and squash facilities, and arenas can open with a maximum capacity of 50 people;
    • bingo halls, performance spaces, and cinemas can open with a maximum capacity of 50 people; and
    • restaurants and bars and lounges can open for in-person dining, reduced to 50% of normal capacity.
  • On March 29th, the Government of British Columbia announced it was amending the provincial health orders effective March 30th until April 19th and that:
    • dine-in service is prohibited in restaurants, bars and pubs;
    • adult group fitness activities of any kind are paused; and
    • Whistler-Blackcomb ski resort is closed.

Transportation

  • Calgary-based Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and Kansas City Southern of Missouri announced they had entered into a merger agreement, under which CP agreed to acquire KCS in a stock and cash transaction representing an enterprise value of approximately USD $29 billion, including debt. The companies said the transaction will combine the two railroads to create the first rail network connecting the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and is subject to shareholder approval and satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including the approval of the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, which is expected to be completed by the middle of 2022.
  • Calgary-based WestJet Airlines Ltd. announced it will restore flights to the communities of Charlottetown, Fredericton, Moncton, Sydney, and Quebec City in the coming months after service was suspended as a result of COVID-19. The company said the reinstatement of service will restore WestJet's complete network of pre-COVID-19 domestic airports. Later, WestJet announced 11 new domestic routes across Western Canada and that it will offer new nonstop service for 15 communities across Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario.
  • Toronto-based Porter Airlines announced it was pushing back the date it plans to resume flights to May 19th instead of March 29th.
  • Montreal-based Transat A.T. Inc. announced it currently expects to resume its operations around mid-June.
  • Toronto-based Sunwing Travel Group announced it was launching its domestic summer program with flights commencing in May and running weekly until the beginning of September. The company said there would be flights between Toronto and Vancouver, St. Johns, Gander, and Stephenville.

Other news

  • The Bank of Canada announced it was maintaining its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25%. The target for the overnight rate was reduced by 150 basis points in March 2020. The Bank also said it was maintaining its forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.
  • The Government of Yukon tabled its 2021-22 Budget on March 4th, which included investments in education, housing, community infrastructure, and renewable energy projects. The Government also said the small business tax was cut to zero percent on January 1, 2021. The Government projects a $12.7 million deficit in 2021-2022 and real GDP growth of 7.9% in 2021.
  • The Government of Prince Edward Island delivered its 2021-22 Operating Budget on March 12th, which included investments in health care, education, and clean technology as well as additional tax reductions, including reducing the business tax rate to 1% and increasing the basic personal amount to $11,250 and the low-income reduction threshold to $20,000. The Government expects a $112 million deficit in 2021-2022 and real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2021.
  • The Government of New Brunswick tabled its 2021-22 budget on March 16th, which included investments in health care, education, energy, affordable housing, and the environment. The Government projects a $244.8 million deficit in 2021-2022 and real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2021.
  • The Government of Ontario on March 24th tabled Budget 2021, which included investments in health care, measures to support workers and families, and plans to support jobs. The Government projects a $33.1 billion deficit in 2021-2022 and real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2021.
  • The Government of Quebec on March 25th presented Budget 2021-2022, which included investments in health care, education, and infrastructure, as well as measures to stimulate investment and improve productivity. The Government forecasts a $12.3 billion deficit for 2021-2022 and real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2021.
  • The Government of Nova Scotia on March 25th released Budget 2021-22, which included investments in tourism and hospitality, health system improvements, long-term care, childcare and education, and climate action. The Government estimates a $584.9 million deficit in 2021-2022 and real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2021.
  • Toronto-based Rogers Communications Inc. and Shaw Communications Inc. of Calgary announced they had reached an agreement for Rogers to acquire all of Shaw's issued and outstanding Class A Shares and Class B Shares in a transaction valued at approximately $26 billion inclusive of debt. The companies said the transaction is expected to occur in the first half of 2022, subject to shareholder approval and other customary closing conditions including court and stock exchange approval, as well as approvals from Canadian regulators. The companies also said Rogers will invest $6.5 billion in Western Canada to build 5G networks, connect underserved rural and Indigenous communities, and that these investments will create up to 3,000 net new jobs across Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

United States and other international news

  • The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. The last change in the target range was a 100 basis points decrease announced in March 2020. The FOMC also said the Federal Reserve would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve Board announced it will extend its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility (PPPLF) by three months to June 30, 2021. The Federal Reserve Board said the other currently active 13(3) facilities—the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility—have not had significant usage since last summer and will expire as scheduled on March 31st.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) announced (i) the interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively; (ii) the net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) will continue with a total envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end of March 2022; and (iii) net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at a monthly pace of €20 billion. The Governing Council of the ECB said that, based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, it expects purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year.
  • The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain the Bank Rate at 0.1%. The MPC also voted to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases at £20 billion, and to continue with the existing programme of UK government bond purchases, maintaining the target for the stock of these government bonds at £875 billion and so the total stock of asset purchases at £895 billion.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds at 0.10%. The last change in the target for the cash rate was a 15 basis points reduction in November 2020. The RBA also maintained the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced it will apply a negative interest rate of -0.1% to the Policy-Rate Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the BoJ and that it will purchase a necessary amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent. The BoJ also said it will establish the Interest Rate Scheme to Promote Lending in which interest rates, linked to the short-term policy interest rate, will be applied to a certain amount of financial institutions' current account balances.
  • The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee of Norway's Norges Bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.0%. The last change in the policy rate was a 25 basis points reduction in May 2020.
  • OPEC and non-OPEC Ministers announced on March 4th they had approved a continuation of the production levels of March for the month of April, with the exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, which would be allowed to increase production by 130 and 20 thousand barrels per day respectively due to continued seasonal consumption patterns.
  • Texas-based Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, Inc. announced it had filed a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The company said it would pay all obligations under normal terms of business for goods and services provided on the filing date of March 1, 2021, and thereafter.

Financial market news

  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at USD $59.16 per barrel on March 31st, down from a closing value of USD $61.50 at the end of February. Western Canadian Select crude oil traded in the USD $46 to $55 per barrel range throughout March. The Canadian dollar closed at 79.52 cents U.S. on March 31st, up from 78.83 cents U.S. at the end of February. The S&P/TSX composite index closed at 18,700.67 on March 31st, up from 18,060.26 at the end of February.