Immigrants admitted in Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec most likely to stay in their provinces of destination
Released: 2024-12-19
Immigration accounts for a large part of population growth, and, in some areas, immigrants make up a sizable portion of the population. Moreover, immigrant settlement has implications for services and overall provincial and territorial demographic structures. Governments of all levels need to understand immigrants' migration patterns in Canada to develop policies to support immigrants' settlement, evaluate the effectiveness of immigration programs and plan and implement social services.
Using data from the 2023 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB), this release examines trends in the one-year and five-year retention rates of immigrants. These rates are defined as the percentage of immigrants residing in Canada who remained in their intended geographical area one year and five years after admission. The IMDB is the result of a collaboration between Statistics Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and the provinces.
One year after admission, an increasing share of immigrants admitted in Quebec stay in the province, whereas immigrants admitted in the Atlantic provinces are more likely to relocate to other regions in Canada
By studying the rate at which immigrants admitted from 2018 to 2021 remained in their intended province or territory one year after admission, the most recent trends in provincial retention and the mobility of those admitted before and during the COVID-19 pandemic can be analyzed.
For immigrants admitted in 2021, those who intended to live in Ontario (94.6%), Quebec (93.4%), British Columbia (91.7%) and Alberta (89.5%) were the most likely to reside in the same province one year after their admission. Quebec's one-year retention rate for the 2021 admission cohort was up by 8.8 percentage points from that of the 2018 cohort. Among all admission categories in Quebec, economic immigrants saw the largest increases.
The Atlantic provinces experienced decreases in one-year retention rates among immigrants admitted in 2020 and those admitted in 2021. Newfoundland and Labrador (-14.1 percentage points) and Nova Scotia (-11.7 percentage points) saw the largest drops, followed by Prince Edward Island (-8.9 percentage points) and New Brunswick (-2.2 percentage points). Immigrants admitted through the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) made up a higher share of total immigrants admitted in Atlantic Canada in 2021, and their retention rates in these provinces significantly dropped. Immigrants who left their intended Atlantic provinces were increasingly likely to settle in Ontario.
The one-year retention rate for immigrants admitted in Manitoba declined by 7.4 percentage points from the 2018 to the 2021 admission cohorts, reaching 69.4% in 2021. In Saskatchewan, 64.5% of immigrants admitted in 2021 stayed in the province one year later, 1.6 percentage points lower than the 2018 admission cohort.
The one-year retention rate in the territories rose from the 2018 cohort to the 2020 cohort, but it sharply declined for immigrants admitted in 2021.
Decreasing shares of immigrants admitted in Saskatchewan and Manitoba live in these provinces five years after admission
Compared with the one-year retention rate, the five-year retention rate provides better insight on the longer-term likelihood that immigrants will settle, establish networks and relationships, and contribute to the economy in their intended province or territory. The analyses focused on trends among immigrants admitted from 2013 to 2017 and their retention rate five years later.
Among immigrants admitted from 2013 to 2017, those who intended to live in Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec were the most likely to reside in the same province five years after their admission. For immigrants admitted in 2017, the five-year retention rate was highest in Ontario (93.5%), followed by British Columbia (87.5%), Alberta (87.3%) and Quebec (79.7%).
While Atlantic Canada has been welcoming increasing shares of recent immigrants, the five-year retention rates in these provinces were generally among the lowest in Canada. Nova Scotia has had a stable five-year retention rate since the 2013 admission cohort (61.7%), and it reached 62.1% for immigrants admitted in 2017. With some fluctuations, the five-year retention rate of immigrant cohorts in New Brunswick rose by 3.9 percentage points from the 2013 admission cohort to reach 51.7% for that of 2017. Newfoundland and Labrador (45.6%) and Prince Edward Island (25.7%) had the lowest five-year retention rates for immigrants admitted in 2017. Both provinces saw their five-year retention rates decrease for immigrants admitted in 2017 compared with those admitted in 2013 (-5.6 percentage points in Newfoundland and Labrador and -13.9 percentage points in Prince Edward Island).
Overall, from 2013/2014 to 2023/2024, a growing number of people migrated out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to other provinces and territories, including immigrants who initially intended to stay in those provinces. Specifically, half (50.0%) of immigrants admitted in 2017 were still residing in Saskatchewan five years later, down 16.4 percentage points from those admitted in 2013—the sharpest decrease among all provinces and territories. The decline over the same period was less pronounced in Manitoba (-10.2 percentage points to 64.9%). Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia were the top three destinations for immigrants who remained in Canada after leaving Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
The three territories had relatively stable five-year retention rates for immigrants admitted from 2013 to 2017.
Retention rates remain high for family-sponsored immigrants and refugees, while those for provincial nominees fall
The five-year retention rates of immigrants varied by admission category. For example, family-sponsored immigrants and refugees consistently had relatively high retention rates. Among immigrants admitted in 2017, the five-year retention rate was 92.0% for family-sponsored immigrants and 87.0% for refugees.
Economic immigrants had a five-year retention rate of 78.7% among those admitted in 2017, down 4.0 percentage points from that of those admitted in 2013. Within this category, the five-year retention rates for immigrants admitted in 2017 as caregivers (94.8%) and through the CEC (88.3%) were stable and high. The five-year retention rate of economic immigrants admitted through skilled worker and skilled trades programs was 78.0% among immigrants admitted in 2017, down 6.8 percentage points from that of their counterparts admitted in 2013.
Among immigrants admitted through economic worker programs from 2013 to 2017, those admitted through the Provincial Nominee Program—that is, those selected to contribute to the local economy and meet specific provincial labour market needs—experienced greater decreases in retention rates than immigrants admitted through other economic worker programs. Overall, 69.1% of provincial nominees admitted in 2017 remained in the same province or territory five years later, 9.6 percentage points lower than the 2013 admission cohort. Manitoba and Saskatchewan, two provinces with a high intake of provincial nominees, experienced steep retention rate declines. In Saskatchewan, the five-year retention rate of provincial nominees was 46.6% among those admitted in 2017, down 18.0 percentage points from the 2013 admission cohort. The five-year retention rate of provincial nominees admitted in 2017 in Manitoba was 65.6%, a 13.4 percentage point decline from the 2013 cohort. Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario, the other provinces with large numbers of provincial nominees, had relatively stable retention rates.
Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver continue to experience declining retention rates
Canada's three largest urban centres (census metropolitan areas [CMAs])—Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver—are the primary destinations where most immigrants settle. However, the 2021 Census of Population found that the proportion of recent immigrants settling in these three urban centres is declining.
Similarly, a downward trend in five-year retention rates among immigrants in the top three urban centres was observed in the 2023 IMDB. In the Toronto CMA, 78.3% of immigrants admitted in 2017 remained there five years later, down 8.0 percentage points from those admitted in 2013. Most immigrants who left this CMA moved to nearby urban centres, such as Oshawa and Hamilton.
Montréal and Vancouver also experienced declines in their five-year retention rates but to a lesser extent. For the 2017 admission cohort, the five-year retention rate in Montréal was 5.3 percentage points lower than that for the 2013 cohort, while it was 3.9 percentage points lower in Vancouver. Nonetheless, the five-year retention rate of immigrants admitted in 2017 in Vancouver (83.4%) remained the highest among all CMAs. Among the immigrants who moved from Montréal and Vancouver to other places in Canada, the majority settled in Toronto, while an increasing share relocated to small urban areas (census agglomerations) in the same provinces or to other urban centres.
In contrast, some urban centres outside these major gateway areas started to gain traction in retaining immigrants. For example, among immigrants admitted in Ontario in 2017, the share still living in the Windsor CMA five years after admission was 79.7%, up 10.8 percentage points from that of those admitted in 2013, surpassing the retention rate in Toronto. Over the same period, Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo (+3.9 percentage points) and London (+2.2 percentage points) experienced slight increases in the share of immigrants remaining there five years later.
The increasing proportion of immigrants moving outside the largest urban centres partly mirrors a shift observed among all Canadians: higher housing costs and the flexibility to work remotely during the pandemic may have contributed to the lower retention rates in major CMAs.
An article using data from the 2023 IMDB on immigrants' economic outcomes was published on December 9, 2024.
Did you know we have a mobile app?
Download our mobile app and get timely access to data at your fingertips! The StatsCAN app is available for free on the App Store and on Google Play.
Note to readers
Definitions and concepts
The Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) is a comprehensive source of data that plays a key role in better understanding the economic behaviour of immigrants and non-permanent residents. It is the only annual Canadian dataset that allows users to study the characteristics of immigrants to Canada at time of admission and the economic outcomes and regional mobility of immigrants over a period of more than 40 years.
The IMDB is the result of a partnership between Statistics Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and the provinces. The IMDB combines administrative data files on immigrant admissions and non-permanent resident permits from IRCC with tax files from the Canada Revenue Agency. IRCC's administrative records contain extensive information on immigrants admitted to Canada since 1952. They also include information on non-permanent residents who have been granted a temporary resident permit since 1980. Tax records for 1982 and subsequent years are available for immigrant taxfilers.
The IMDB links short-term and long-term outcomes to characteristics at admission, such as immigrant admission class, country of birth and knowledge of official languages. The IMDB also provides information on pre-admission experience in Canada and citizenship acquisition since 2004.
It is to be noted that the IMDB is updated annually. From year to year, there have been changes to data processing. Each yearly update is independent.
For additional information regarding the data coverage and data quality of the IMDB, users should refer to the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) Technical Report, 2023.
Economic immigrant admission categories include immigrants who were selected for their ability to contribute to Canada's economy through their ability to meet labour market needs, to own and manage or to build a business, to make a substantial investment, to create their own employment, or to meet specific provincial or territorial labour market needs.
Immigrant-sponsored family categories include immigrants who were sponsored by a Canadian citizen or permanent resident and were granted permanent resident status based on their relationship either as the spouse, partner, parent, grandparent, child or other relative of this sponsor. The terms "family class" or "family reunification" are sometimes used to refer to this category.
The refugee categories include immigrants who were granted permanent resident status based on a well-founded fear of returning to their home country. This category includes persons who had a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or for political opinion (Geneva Convention refugees), as well as persons who had been seriously and personally affected by civil war or armed conflict or had suffered a massive violation of human rights. Some refugees were in Canada when they applied for refugee protection for themselves and their family members (either with them in Canada or abroad), while others were abroad and were referred for resettlement to Canada by the United Nations Refugee Agency, another designated referral organization or private sponsors.
For a more detailed description of the immigrant admission categories, see the IRCC Glossary.
Immigrant taxfilers are immigrants who have filed a tax return for a given taxation year.
The province or territory of admission is the province or territory of intended destination according to immigration applications.
A census metropolitan area (CMA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a population centre (known as the core). A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000, based on data from the current Census of Population Program, of which 50,000 or more must live in the core based on adjusted data from the previous Census of Population Program.
The retention rate represents the percentage of immigrant taxfilers continuing their residence in the geographical area (province or CMA as designated) of intended destination.
Products
The Longitudinal Immigration Database 2023, including the wages and salary module (1997 to 2023), is now available upon request.
The "Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) Technical Report, 2023," is now available as part of the series Analytical Studies: Methods and References (11-633-X).
The data visualization tools "Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) Interactive Application: Economic Outcomes" and "Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) Interactive Application: Mobility" are now available as part of the series Statistics Canada - Data Visualization Products (71-607-X).
The products are available on the Immigrants and Non-Permanent Residents Statistics portal. The portal was designed to provide easy and free access to immigrant and non-permanent resident data and publications. Information is organized into broad categories, including analytical products, data products, reference materials and interactive applications.
Contact information
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).
- Date modified: