What are population projections?
Population projections indicate what the future evolution of a population might look like if the underlying assumptions about future trends come to pass. These assumptions are developed once a year based on historical trends, consultations with experts, and the current Canadian and international context.
How does Statistics Canada develop population projections?
Statistics Canada does not predict the future, but instead creates projections based on current data and trends. The objective behind this is to provide policy makers with results that allow them to understand where the population could be going based on the information known at the time the projections are elaborated.
The agency develops multiple scenarios by analyzing past trends, consulting experts and considering the current context. These scenarios offer different possible outcomes, helping data users understand the range of possibilities, rather than just one predicted future. This is especially important given that the current demographic context is characterized by fast population changes, which is making future population trends even harder to foresee.
It should be noted that population projections are not predictions, in which case only one scenario would be released.
How are population projections used?
Population projections are essential tools for planning in Canada. They help determine future needs for goods and services, infrastructure, and housing and labour force requirements, and they assist in the evaluation of environmental impacts.
Policy planners rely on these projections to assess population trends in the coming years and make informed, strategic decisions for the future. Governments at all levels—federal, provincial, territorial and municipal—use population projections, whether to create budgets, set migration targets or make other decisions that impact the lives of Canadians.
Are population projections useful even though Statistics Canada cannot predict the future?
Yes, population projections are very useful. They provide an objective, neutral source of information that supports informed and transparent decision making. Their real value lies in how they help shape the future, rather than in predicting exact outcomes. Since projections can influence actions, they may become self-defeating prophecies, making them inaccurate in hindsight. As such, users should be cautious when assessing past projections.
Since demographics can change quickly, Statistics Canada updates population projections annually to reflect the most recent and relevant data. With each set of projections, a technical report is also published to help data users understand and evaluate the assumptions. Users are also encouraged to adjust the projections when unexpected shifts render the original assumptions obsolete. Custom projections are also available to meet specific needs.