When caught at the first stage, five-year survival exceeds 90% for four of the five most common cancers in Canada

Approximately 641 Canadians a day, or an estimated 233,900 people, were projected to have received a cancer diagnosis in 2022. For the first time, we can provide, by stage at diagnosis, the odds Canadians face when given a cancer diagnosis for the five most commonly diagnosed cancers based on data from the Canadian Cancer Registry. These five cancers combined account for almost half of cancers diagnosed annually.

When caught at the first stage, the five-year net survival for colon, prostate and rectal cancer, as well as female breast cancer, exceed 90%. For lung and bronchus cancer (lung), the five-year survival at stage one was 61.5%. The survival estimates in this study reflect cases diagnosed among Canadians aged 15 and 99 from 2010 to 2017, excluding Quebec.

Breast cancer most likely to be diagnosed at stage one or two

Over half of the approximately 142,500 (141,000 women, 1,500 men) breast cancer cases included in this study occurred among women aged 50 to 69 years. Over four in five of the total number of women were diagnosed at stage one (44%) or two (37%).

Five-year net survival for women diagnosed with breast cancer at stage one was 99.8% from 2010 to 2017. This fell to 91.9% at stage two, 74.0% at stage three and 23.2% at stage four.

Half of all lung cancer diagnoses are at stage four

Over three-quarters of the approximately 134,000 lung cancer cases from 2010 to 2017 were diagnosed between the ages of 55 and 84. Over half of all lung cancers were diagnosed at stage four (51%) compared with 20% at stage one.

Five-year net survival among Canadians diagnosed with lung cancer at stage one was 61.5% from 2010 to 2017. This fell to 39.3% at stage two, 16.3% at stage three and 3.1% at stage four.

Women had a better five-year survival than men at every stage of diagnosis for lung cancer, most notably at stage one (66% versus 56%).

Prostate cancer five-year survival rates top 99% at the first three stages

Just over two-thirds of the prostate cancer cases from 2010 to 2017 were diagnosed among men aged 55 to 74 years old. Over half of the prostate cancers (51%) diagnosed were at stage two, while 21% were at stage one.

Five-year net survival was close to 100% among men diagnosed with prostate cancer at each of the first three stages, then it declined to 41.1% at stage four.

Over half of colon cancer cases were diagnosed at stage two or three

Over half (55%) of the approximately 83,400 Canadians diagnosed with colon cancer and included in this study were aged 65 to 84. Over half of the total cases were discovered at stage two or three, while 22% were diagnosed at stage one.

Five-year net survival among Canadians diagnosed with colon cancer at stage one was 92.4% from 2010 to 2017. This fell to 88.0% at stage two, 68.1% at stage three and 11.1% at stage four.

Rectal cancer most likely to be diagnosed at stage three

Over half (53%) of the approximately 42,100 Canadians diagnosed with rectal cancer from 2010 to 2017 were aged 55 to 74. Nearly one-quarter of the total rectal cancers diagnosed were at stage one (24%), and over half were at stage two (19%) or stage three (33%).

Five-year net survival among Canadians diagnosed with rectal cancer at stage one was 91.2% from 2010 to 2017. This fell to 79.1% at stage two, 73.5% at stage three and 13.4% at stage four.

Five-year survival for stage four lung, breast and prostate cancer have risen

The five-year survival estimates rose for three of the five most common cancers at stage four from 2010-2012 to 2015-2017.

The largest increase was observed among men diagnosed with prostate cancer at stage four, where five-year survival rose by 4.4 percentage points.

For women diagnosed with stage four breast cancer, five-year survival rose by 2.7 percentage points over this period.

For lung cancer, significant increases over this period were seen among cases diagnosed at stages one, three and four, with the largest increase occurring at stage one, where five-year survival increased by 2.9 percentage points.

Conversely, the five-year survival rates for colon and rectal cancer were little changed at all stages over this period.