Lifetime probability of developing and dying from cancer in Canada

Recent estimates suggest that over two in five Canadians will likely develop cancer in their lifetime, and over one in five are expected to die from it. Although cancer remains the leading cause of death in Canada, a new study has found that the lifetime probability of developing and dying of cancer has fallen in recent years.

Men have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer than women

The overall lifetime probability of developing cancer stood at 44.3% in 2018, with men (45.1%) being slightly more likely to develop cancer than women (43.5%).

In 2018, the top six cancers men had a higher lifetime probability of developing were prostate cancer (12.3%), lung cancer (6.9%), colorectal cancer (6.2%), bladder cancer (4.5%), non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (2.8%) and melanoma (2.5%).

In the same year, the top six cancers women had a higher lifetime probability of developing were breast cancer (12.5%), lung cancer (7.0%), colorectal cancer (5.3%), uterine cancer (3.3%), non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (2.2%) and melanoma (2.0%).

For women, the lifetime probability of developing cancer rose from 1997 to 2013 and has decreased since then.

For men, the lifetime probability of developing cancer has been falling since 2010.

Men are more likely to die from cancer than women

The overall lifetime probability of dying from cancer stood at 22.5% in 2020, with men (24.1%) being more likely to die from cancer than women (21.1%).

In 2020, the top six cancers men had a higher lifetime probability of dying from were lung cancer (5.0%), prostate cancer (3.3%), colorectal cancer (2.7%), pancreas cancer (1.5%), bladder cancer (1.1%) and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (1.0%).

In the same year, the top six cancers women had a higher lifetime probability of dying from were lung cancer (4.8%), breast cancer (2.8%), colorectal cancer (2.4%), pancreas cancer (1.5%), ovarian cancer (1.0%) and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (0.8%).

The lifetime probability of dying from cancer has been falling since the mid 2010s

The lifetime probability of dying from cancer has changed over time.

For women, the lifetime probability of dying from cancer rose from 1997 to 2003, was stable until 2016, and has fallen since then.

For men, the lifetime probability of dying from cancer rose from 1997 to 2001, plateaued until 2014, and has fallen since 2015.

The lifetime probability of dying from prostate cancer (-0.5% per year) or female breast cancer (-1.1% per year) declined steadily from 1997 to 2020.

Since 2014, the lifetime probability of dying from lung and colorectal cancers has fallen sharply for men (lung: -3.8% per year; colorectal: -2.9%) and women (-3.0% in both cases).

The probability of dying of cancer declines after the age of 80 years

The probability of dying of cancer declines after the age of 80 years, alas, in tandem with the higher probability of dying from some other condition.

If you can make it to the age of 80 years without a cancer diagnosis, the odds of dying from cancer fall to 27.5% for men and to 22.4% for women. In fact, Canadians over the age of 80 years are about 40% less likely to develop cancer than newborns or Canadians aged 60 years and younger.

The highest probability of dying of cancer is from aged 60 years to 80 years.

Canadians are more likely to die of cancer than Americans

Canadians have a higher lifetime probability of dying from cancer than Americans. 

External studies have found that just under three-quarters (72.5%) of all deaths in Canada in 2020 were not related to cancer, compared with four-fifths (80.2%) of all deaths in the United States.

While Americans are less likely to die of cancer than Canadians, they are more likely to die of other causes.

For example, in 2017, 72.0 Americans per 100,000 had an underlying cause of death related to high body mass index leading to probable events of cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus, whereas the same issue in Canada affected 45.2 individuals per 100,000.

Age standardized mortality rates for injury were also elevated in the United States (46 cases per 100,000 deaths) compared with Canada (33 cases per 100,000 deaths) in 2017.

Full report now available

The paper "Lifetime probability of developing cancer and dying from cancer in Canada, 1997 to 2020,” is now available.