Rolled higher up: Taking stock of Canadian oats

What a difference a year makes for oats, a perennial food staple found in meals, snacks, and beverages. It also gets used as livestock feed.

As of July 31, 2023, the combined total of farm and commercial stocks of oats stood at 1.3 million tonnes—nearly four times (+282.9%) the amount at July 31, 2022, and the largest rate of increase among all principal field crops.

For comparison, flaxseed (+168.3%) had the second largest percentage increase over the same period, followed by dry field peas (+46.9%) and barley (+30.4%).

Three times during the crop year (August 1 to July 31), Statistics Canada releases data on stocks of grain and oilseeds as of these dates: December 31, March 31, and July 31. Stocks are generally highest at December 31 following harvests; somewhere in the middle at March 31, after weeks of shipments to grocery stores, bakeries, factories and elsewhere; and lowest at July 31.

Growing conditions contribute to historic low in 2021

From July 31, 2021, to July 31, 2022, stocks of oats fell by nearly half (-49.3%) to 333,000 tonnes—an all-time low for July 31 stocks in any year since the current data series began in 1980, mainly due to growing conditions in Western Canada in 2021.

Higher production in 2022 contributed to the sharp rise in stocks at July 31, 2023. Oat exports rose 16.2% from 2.3 million tonnes as of July 31, 2022, to 2.7 million tonnes as of July 31, 2023.

Farm prices coming down

Monthly prices for oats paid at the farm gate rose in 2022—including an all-time high of $625.28 per tonne paid to Manitoba farmers in June of that year. Close behind was the $617.36 per tonne paid to Saskatchewan farmers.

The $418.03 per tonne paid to Ontario farmers in February 2023 is the high mark so far for this year. More recently, the $357.40 per tonne paid to farmers in that same province was the highest price for August 2023.

Availability up in 2022, prices increasing

The annual food availability program measures the amount of food physically present in Canada for consumption in a given year.

There were 1.60 kilograms of oatmeal and rolled oats available per person in 2022, more than double the 0.76 kilograms available in 2021.

In 2019, there were 4.74 kilograms available per Canadian, the highest since we started tracking the current data series in 1960. Conversely, 2014 and 2015 shared the all-time low mark of 0.67 kilograms per person.

And if you feel like there’s been some sticker shock when buying your oats at the grocery store, you’re probably right.

Prices for breakfast cereal and other cereal products, including oats and rolled oats, increased 17.8% in October 2022 on a year-over-year basis. More recently, prices have increased at a slower rate, up 4.4% in September 2023 compared with a year ago.

Price increases in this food category have remained above the overall rate of inflation for food purchased from stores in most months going back to October 2021.

Looking ahead: lower production expected in 2023

Producers may have opted to seed less area with oats in 2023, because of the high national supply that resulted from strong production in 2022 (5.2 million tonnes). The 2.5 million acres seeded nationwide in 2023 are down by over one-third (-35.8%) from 2022, and the lowest seeded acreage on record.

As of August 31, oat production for 2023 is projected to fall by 53.4% to 2.4 million tonnes, attributable to lower harvested area and lower yields.

Final production estimates for 2023 will be released on December 4, 2023.