Ready to explore Canada’s energy future through 2050?

In the not-so-distant future, Canadians could find themselves in a world that looks vastly different from the one we know today. In June 2023, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released the latest Canada’s Energy Future 2023 (EF2023) report, which explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term in three scenarios to 2050: Global Net-zero (GNZ), Canada Net-zero (CNZ), and Current Measures. 

Statistics Canada contributed energy and electricity data to the report. For more information about energy in Canada, check out the Canadian Centre for Energy Information, a partnership between Statistics Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the CER.

In the two net-zero scenarios, the report projects a significant shift from traditional energy sources to electricity-driven alternatives, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, as well as the adoption of low-emission technologies, such as hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). The country’s transition towards a net-zero future will see electricity become the most important energy source for Canadians.

The oil and gas industry significantly reduces emissions using various technologies through the projection period. At the same time, the pace of global climate action will have a direct impact on lowering global demand and prices for oil and gas in the long run. This is projected to lead to a significant decline in oil and gas production in Canada by 2050.

This decline is most significant in GNZ, where the rest of the world is taking actions to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, fossil fuels will still play an important part in Canada’s energy system, particularly in industrial facilities outfitted with CCUS or for non-energy use like asphalt and petrochemicals. 

Visualizing the scenarios 

While the country is projected to look drastically different in the future, with the report's data visualization tool, Exploring Canada’s Energy Future, you don't have to read about the future—you can visualize it! The tool allows you to explore what the energy mix will look like and how it will change according to the different scenarios.   

The user-friendly tool allows you to compare the evolving energy mix over time across diverse scenarios at the national, provincial and territorial levels. For example, the tool illustrates a drop in oil production by nearly one million barrels per day from 2022 to 2050 in the CNZ scenario, while electricity production more than doubles to about 1.4 million gigawatt-hours. 

Canada and the global effort to achieve net-zero 

Canadian energy and emission trends will be influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including policy decisions, the dynamics of global energy markets, Canadian and global climate action, technological advancements, and shifting consumer behaviours and preferences. These variables, along with many others, will ultimately determine the course of Canada’s energy future. 

As Canadians look towards 2050, many changes are on the horizon. EF2023 and its accompanying data visualization tool provide valuable insights into the country's energy transition. The report can help inform decisions that contribute to a greener, more sustainable future, so take a look and explore the interesting possibilities of a net-zero future!