Artificial intelligence and the elves: A holiday tale

Should Santa’s helpers and elves at the North Pole be worried about losing their jobs to artificial intelligence (AI)? While the full effects of AI are not fully realized yet, a recent study sheds light on which jobs might be on the “good” list when it comes to working with AI, and which jobs might be exposed to AI.

Some traditional high-paying occupations that require advanced education might be more exposed to artificial intelligence, while most manual labour work could be less exposed to artificial intelligence

For some occupations, AI bodes well since it might make those jobs easier. Professions such as doctors, teachers and electrical engineers might be highly exposed to, but also highly complementary with, AI technologies. Generally, these “high-exposure, high-complementarity” occupations tend to pay above the national average in terms of wages.

Occupations less exposed to AI include plumbers, carpenters, firefighters, factory workers, welders, and employees in the food services industry such as servers. AI is less likely to affect these “low-exposure” occupations, but some of these occupations which involve simple and repetitive tasks might still face a higher risk of automation by machines.

Some occupations could be highly exposed to and less complementary with AI. These “high-exposure, low-complementary” occupations might include jobs such as computer programmers or technicians, web content writers and designers, economists as well as data entry clerks. Jobs highly exposed to and less complementary with AI might have relatively more tasks which could be transformed due to AI, but whether AI can replace these jobs entirely is hard to say with any degree of certainty.

The bottom line: AI is more likely to transform the jobs done in the virtual world of the monitor, keyboard, and the mind. What that transformation looks like remains to be seen because employers may not replace human workers with AI, even if it is technologically feasible to do so, given financial, legal or institutional constraints.

For those whose job requires a physical presence as well as mental and manual dexterity, whether it be serving food and drinks at a bar, laying or welding a pipe, climbing a utility pole to restore power or building a home, AI might be less transformative, but other disruptive labour market forces such as automation could still be a factor.

Gingerbread bakers and candy cane makers can rest easy

The study found that 90% of the jobs in the accommodation and food services industry had low exposure to AI, suggesting that the gingerbread bakers and candy cane makers at the North Pole are safe.

Jobs at Santa’s toy factory appear safe

Occupations at Santa’s workshop, where the toys get made, also appear safe, with two-thirds (66%) of all manufacturing jobs, 92% of machinists and 100% of trade jobs such as welders and carpenters having low exposure to AI.

“Making a list and checking it twice” type jobs might be more exposed to artificial intelligence

Whoever is in charge of keeping Santa’s naughty and nice list is potentially more exposed to the upcoming AI revolution, with 76% of “office support and co-ordination occupations” being highly exposed to and less complementary with AI.

Elves jobs in the computer programming wing of Santa’s workshop among the most likely to be transformed by artificial intelligence

Many of the toys children receive today are computer-based games, and computer programmers are among the most exposed to the potential upcoming AI revolution, with 100% of these jobs deemed highly exposed to and less complementary with AI.

Nevertheless, these jobs will be integral to developing and maintaining the underlying AI infrastructure, so it could simply mean that relatively more tasks performed in these types of jobs might be transformed as a result of AI.

Further reading

For those looking for more information, or a stocking stuffer for a loved one, the paper “Experimental Estimates of Potential Artificial Intelligence Occupational Exposure in Canada” is available for free online and in PDF format.

Happy Holidays!