The Weekly Review, December 16 to 20, 2024

The Consumer Price Index rose on a year-over-year basis in November

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in November, down from a 2.0% increase in October. Slower price growth was broad-based, with prices for travel tours and the mortgage interest cost index contributing the most to the deceleration. Excluding gasoline, the all-items CPI rose 2.0% in November, following a 2.2% gain in October.

Source: Consumer Price Index, November 2024

Population growth in Canada continues to slow

Canada's population was estimated at 41,465,298 on October 1, 2024, an increase of 176,699 people (+0.4%) from July 1. This was the slowest quarterly growth seen since the first quarter of 2022 (+0.3%), when the population of Canada grew by 116,392 people. International migration (including permanent and temporary immigration) continued to drive population growth in Canada. In the third quarter of 2024, international migration accounted for 92.0% of all growth (+162,566 people), with 8.0% of all growth coming from natural increase (births minus deaths) (+14,133).

Source: Canada's population estimates, third quarter 2024

Notable foreign investment in Canadian securities continues

Foreign investors increased their exposure to Canadian securities by $21.5 billion in October, a second consecutive month marked by significant investment activity. Meanwhile, Canadian investors reduced their holdings of foreign securities by $2.6 billion, the first divestment since January. As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds of $24.2 billion to the Canadian economy in October.

Source: Canada's international transactions in securities, October 2024

Rising prices have affected young families’ decisions to move

Among Canadians under the age of 35 who indicated that they were not experiencing financial difficulty, about one-quarter reported that they wanted to buy a home or move to a new rental but did not because of rising prices. Among those experiencing financial difficulty, 45% reported that their moving decisions were negatively impacted by rising prices.

Source: Economic and Social Reports, December 2024

Gross margins for wholesalers increased from 2022 to 2023

The total operating revenue of Canadian wholesalers declined 4.3% between 2022 and 2023, from $1,587.5 billion to $1,519.0 billion. Total operating revenue declined in five of the nine subsectors, with the largest decline coming from the petroleum and petroleum products subsector. Along with the decline in total operating revenue, the cost of goods sold, which represents the cost of acquiring goods for resale, fell 4.5% to $1,277.6 billion in 2023. As a result, gross margins for wholesalers (the difference between total operating revenue and the cost of goods sold, expressed as a percentage of total operating revenue) increased from 15.7% in 2022 to 15.9% in 2023.

Source: Annual wholesale trade, 2023

Should Santa’s helpers and elves at the North Pole be worried about losing their jobs to artificial intelligence (AI)?

For some occupations, AI bodes well since it might make those jobs easier. Professions such as doctors, teachers and electrical engineers might be highly exposed to, but also highly complementary with, AI technologies. Generally, these “high-exposure, high-complementarity” occupations tend to pay above the national average in terms of wages. Occupations less exposed to AI include plumbers, carpenters, firefighters, factory workers, welders, and employees in the food services industry such as servers. 

Source: Artificial intelligence and the elves: A holiday tale