Extreme weather by the numbers: How weather impacts energy output

“If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes.” This famous (and probably apocryphal) quote, usually attributed to Mark Twain, could often be applied to Canada. It’s not uncommon to experience several seasons in one week, or even in one 24-hour period. According to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), we can expect more extreme weather events, including “increasing wildfires, more intense droughts and hurricanes, and more intense heat waves.”

These extreme weather events can impact our lives in many ways, some severe and some less so. In fact, the year 2024 was the costliest in terms of insurance payouts related to catastrophic weather-related events. Power outages are perhaps one of the most common and immediately felt effects caused by these events. But the lights not coming on at the flick of a switch is not the only way that weather affects Canada’s overall energy systems.

Hot enough to fry an egg? 

According to ECCC, the year 2023 was one of the hottest summers in Canada since at least 1940. This was particularly true in British Columbia, where the village of Lytton recorded the summer’s hottest temperature, a blistering 42.2 degrees Celsius on August 15, 2023. 

British Columbians turned to air conditioning for relief amid the heat, which contributed to a jump in electricity consumption. Electricity consumption in 2023 was well above historical averages during the hottest months of the year. In July 2023, British Columbia used 7.7% more electricity than the July average from 2016 to 2022, while in August 2023, consumption was 6.3% above the average.

Chart 1: Monthly electricity consumption in British Columbia

From 2016 to 2022, it was not unusual to see electricity consumption outpace provincial energy generation in British Columbia. The province relies heavily on hydroelectric generation. However, the summer 2023 heat wave in British Columbia coincided with the onset of a drought (more on that later), which reduced hydroelectricity generation. The gulf between generation and consumption led British Columbia to import more electricity in July 2023 than any other month since the electricity data series was redesigned in 2016. Imports remained high in August 2023, and the July record was then surpassed in September.

The increase in imports had tangible and immediate effects. According to BC Hydro, electricity imports cost $450 million in 2023. Some electricity providers cited the cost of imports as the reason for electricity rate increases. 

Hot and dry

In 2023, the heat exacerbated dry conditions across Canada. Similar to British Columbia, Quebec and Manitoba rely heavily on hydroelectricity, and drought conditions significantly reduced generation in these provinces.

Hydro-Québec has fashioned itself as “the green battery of northeastern North America” because of its huge hydroelectric generating capacity and its robust exports—both to other provinces and the United States. From 2016 to 2022, Quebec accounted for on average over one-third (38.9%) of Canada’s monthly electricity exports to the United States, representing 2.1 million megawatt-hours (MWh). 

When, in 2023, Hydro-Québec reported curtailing its exports to compensate for reduced water inflows to its reservoirs, Quebec’s exports tumbled 41.1% year over year and averaged 1.1 million MWh each month during that year.

Chart 2: Quebec exports of electricity to the United States

Despite the drop in exports, Hydro-Québec still posted a net income of $3.3 billion in 2023. However, this was well down from the record profit of $4.6 billion in 2022. The difference was due in part to the drought-related decrease in exports.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire

The unusually hot and dry conditions seen across much of Canada in 2023 contributed to a record wildfire season. As noted by ECCC, on June 6, 2023, there were out-of-control wildfires burning in every province and territory except Prince Edward Island and Nunavut.

The wildfires had particularly noticeable impacts on Alberta’s natural gas production in May and June 2023. Several natural gas production facilities were shut down as a precaution, and as a result, production dropped 9.3% in May 2023 compared with the same month in 2022. This was despite 2023 production starting at an elevated level compared with 2022.

Chart 3: Alberta’s production of natural gas

When it rains it pours

While much of Canada could have used more rain in 2023, excessive rains can also impact the energy industry. In November and December 2021, an atmospheric river in British Columbia resulted in widespread flooding. In several places, these floods washed out the ground around the Trans Mountain pipeline, which connects crude oil production sites in Alberta with refineries and export terminals in British Columbia and Washington State and also carries hydrocarbon gas liquids and refined petroleum products such as gasoline.

The floods left the pipeline dangerously exposed to logs or other debris carried by the floodwaters. As a precautionary measure, the pipeline was shut down on November 14, 2021, and restarted at reduced capacity 21 days later, following repairs and maintenance. This was the longest shutdown in the pipeline’s roughly 70-year history.

The impact of the shutdown could be seen in our Monthly Energy Transportation and Storage Survey data. Movements of hydrocarbon gas liquids and refined petroleum products by pipeline in November and December 2021 combined were 48.2% lower than those observed during the same period in 2020, while movements of crude oil and equivalents were down 21.4%.

Chart 4: Movements of crude oil and equivalents and hydrocarbon gas liquids and refined petroleum products from Alberta and British Columbia

The floods and the shutdown of the pipeline saw the British Columbia government institute measures to curtail non-essential travel and ration fuel. While movements of crude oil and equivalents continued to decline in December 2021 compared with November, movements of hydrocarbon gas liquids and refined petroleum products increased, helping to relieve the fuel shortages.

If you enjoyed this article, you may also wish to view other energy articles:

• Published March 5, 2024: Hydroelectricity generation dries up amid low precipitation and record high temperatures: Electricity year in review 2023